Wilted Lettuce Salad

I have been hearing a lot of talk lately about “green shoots” or signs that life might be starting to appear on the scorched plains of our economy.  I saw stirrings as home sales seemed to firm, durable goods orders took a healthy jump, and equity markets marched upward.  Unfortunately, many of these indicators have recently reversed course and resumed their downward march.  Commentary now centers on the rate of decline, optimistically pointing out that things aren’t deteriorating as fast as they once were.  Small comfort.  It looks to me like the tossed salad of data we use at Atlas Indicators.com is starting to wilt.  The brightest spot currently remaining might be the ECRI report which, in its current configuration, has presaged an economic recovery 16 out of 17 times.  In fact, 1930 was the only exception.  One out of 17; what are the chances of that happening again?